Loss of recreation services

Loss of recreation services

Landscapes, wildlife and water bodies are what many tourism and leisure activities offer their customers. When they degrade, those places attract fewer visitors. Resilience books that loss as a Business interruption loss, against revenue only.

What the map shows

Recreation services have no layer of their own. They are read through the natural assets ENCORE links to them:

• Today: Species, weight 0.5: MSA Degradation (2015). Water, weight 0.5: Water Stress (Aqueduct 4.0), by basin. Habitats, weight 0.5 (0 in the open ocean): Natural habitat % — baseline 2024 (LUH3), hidden from the map pickers and shown under Today.
• Projected: Species: MSA Shock, SSP1 and SSP3. Water: Water Stress Shock, SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, by basin. Habitats: LUH3 Shock, trajectory M for SSP1 and H for SSP3. All at 2035, 2050 and 2080. SSP2-4.5 reads the SSP3 layers.

A site spanning several biomes keeps the highest weight. At each site the service takes the most degraded supplier, after its delivery weight.

How the loss is computed

The degradation D, between 0 and 1, is the largest of (delivery weight × degradation of the natural asset) at the site. The dependency is the ENCORE rating of the site's activity, read as (rating − 1) / 4. No replacement cost applies to this risk, so the loss stays D × dependency × revenue. See Nature risks and Shock layers.

Sources

• GLOBIO 4 (PBL), Schipper et al. (2020): Mean Species Abundance. CC BY 4.0.
• WRI Aqueduct 4.0, baseline and future water-stress projections. CC BY 4.0.
• Land-Use Harmonization 3 (LUH3), University of Maryland, CMIP7 (Zenodo / input4MIPs); HYDE 3.4 land-use reconstruction. LUH3: CC BY 4.0. HYDE 3.4: Licence not confirmed (CC BY 4.0 reported).
• ENCORE 2024 (Global Canopy, UNEP FI, UNEP-WCMC): delivery weights and dependency ratings. CC BY-SA 4.0.

Limits

• ENCORE also links Atmosphere (read as wind), Land geomorphology and Ocean geomorphology. None of them has a live layer, so they read no shock.
• The Water asset is read as baseline water stress, a measure of competition for water among users.
• LUH3 runs one model per trajectory (M is IMAGE, H is GCAM), so part of the gap between scenarios is a model gap.