Risk Layers

Darwin's nature-risk screening draws on 104 geospatial map layers, organised by the platform's risk taxonomy (sourced live from darwin/layers on develop). Each fact sheet states whether the layer is used in risk analysis and, where it is, its proximity and activity triggers, legend, source, and comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite.

Physical risks (47)

Provisioning services (4)

Water availability (4)

• Drought risk (Aqueduct 4.0)
• Water Stress (Aqueduct 4.0)
• Water Stress 2030 (Aqueduct 4.0)
• Water Stress 2050 (Aqueduct 4.0)

Enabling services (7)

• PM2.5 Air Pollution Risk (IPCC CMIP6)
• PM2.5 Air Pollution Risk 2050 (IPCC CMIP6)
• Pollination Deficit (Chaplin-Kramer)

Air condition (1)

• Air quality risk (global, CAMS EAC4 2024)

Soil condition (1)

• Soil condition (Global Soil Organic Carbon)

Water condition (2)

• Coastal eutrophication potential (Aqueduct 3.0)
• Risk of pesticides pollution (Tang et al. 2023)

Mitigating services (35)

Climate Acute Risks (14)

• Coastal flood depth (Deltares + WRI Aqueduct, combined)
• Coastal flood risk (Aqueduct 3.0)
• Extreme Heat Risk (IPCC CMIP6)
• Extreme Heat Risk 2050 (France, DRIAS)
• Extreme Precipitation Risk (IPCC CMIP6)
• Extreme Precipitation Risk 2050 (France, DRIAS)
• Fire Weather Risk 2050 (France, DRIAS)
• Flood depth — 10-year return, present climate (GIRI)
• Hailstorm Climatology
• Marine Flooding Risk (France, BRGM)
• Riverine Flood risk (Aqueduct 3.0)
• Surface Wind Risk (IPCC CMIP6)
• Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard (c.2070)
• Wildfire Hazard (NASA FIRMS NOAA-21)

Climate Chronic Risks (14)

1981-2010 (7)

• Annual mean temperature — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)
• Annual precipitation — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)
• Max temperature of warmest month — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)
• Min temperature of coldest month — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)
• Precipitation of driest month — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)
• Precipitation of wettest month — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)
• Precipitation seasonality (CV) — 1981-2010 (CHELSA)

2071-2100 (7)

• Annual mean temperature — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
• Annual precipitation — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
• Max temperature of warmest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
• Min temperature of coldest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
• Precipitation of driest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
• Precipitation of wettest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
• Precipitation seasonality (CV) — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)

Geological (5)

• Clay shrink-swell risk (global)
• Clay Swelling and Shrinking Risk (France)
• Landslide susceptibility (global, NASA)
• Seismic Hazard (GSHAP PGA, 475-yr return)
• Subsidence susceptibility (global, Herrera GSS)

Biological hazards (2)

• Herbicide resistance risk (global, Heap 2021)
• Zoonotic disease spillover risk (global, Allen et al. 2017)

Cultural services (1)

• Tourism intensity: estimated annual visitors number in 2019 (Adamiak et al.)

Transition risks (46)

Sensitive areas (34)

• LandMark Indigenous and Community Lands (IPLC)

Protected areas (15)

• Bangladesh Forests and Parks
• Europe Protected Areas
• India Protected Areas
• Natura 2000
• Protected Areas (Brazil)
• Protected Areas (Colombia)
• Protected Areas (Costa Rica)
• Protected Areas (Côte d'Ivoire)
• Protected Areas (Kazakhstan)
• Protected Areas (Madagascar)
• Protected Areas (New Caledonia)
• Ramsar
• UNESCO World Heritage Sites
• UNESCO World Heritage Sites (with buffer)
• US Protected Areas

High integrity areas (4)

• Biodiversity Intactness Index
• Ecosystem Integrity Index (EII)
• Intact forest landscape 2021 (GFW)
• Seed Biocomplexity Index

Critical areas (12)

• Functional Ecological Network (FEN, Belgium, Antwerp)
• Mangroves (Global Mangrove Watch)

SRCE (France) (5)

• Biodiversity Reservoir
• Linear Corridor
• Linear Water Stream
• Surface Corridor
• Surface Water Stream

WWF G200 (3)

• WWF G200 Freshwater
• WWF G200 Marine
• WWF G200 Terrestrial

ZNIEFF (2)

• ZNIEFF Type 1
• ZNIEFF Type 2

Endangered species habitats (2)

• GBIF Threatened Species
• IUCN Red list plants (France)

Ecosystem use (2)

• Global Forest Watch, canopy loss during 2020-2023
• Wetland Loss Variation Risk Map (2010-2020)

Overexploitation (3)

• Freshwater Quantity Overshoot
• IUU Fishing Risk Index
• Water depletion (Aqueduct 4.0)

Pollution (5)

• Air pollutant emissions risk (global, EDGARv8.1 2022)
• Nitrogen Fertilizer Use Risk Map (2023)
• Pesticide Use Risk Map (2023)

Disturbance (1)

• Night light

Plastics (1)

• Mismanaged Plastic Waste (Lebreton et al. 2019)

Invasive Species (2)

• Rarity-weighted Species Richness
• Rarity-weighted Species Richness for Threatened Species

Scenario (15)

Forward-looking shock layers, consumed by the Nature Stress Test and not by present-day materiality scoring. Each NST V1 page below documents a family: two scenarios (SSP1-2.6 optimistic, SSP3-7.0 pessimistic) × three horizons (2035 / 2050 / 2080).

Ecosystem-service shocks — ES-direct, NST V1 (4)

Read straight into the ENCORE service they name, bypassing the component-to-service projection.

• Water purification shock (NDR) — IMAGE-GNM river-N model
• Pest control shock (biological control) — GLOBIO-ES
• Pollination shock — InVEST native-bee model
• Soil protection shock (soil & sediment retention) — GLOBIO-ES

Ecosystem-component shocks — NST V1 (1)

• Natural-habitat shock (LUH2) — Habitats — default Habitats proxy

The Species (MSA), Soils (SOC), Atmosphere (PM2.5) and Water (Aqueduct) components are horizon-resolved in NST V1 as well; their pages below still describe the earlier single-horizon versions. The Shock Layers methodology page lists the current set in full.

Superseded — single-horizon 2050 (10)

• Ecoregion_shock_ssp1
• Ecoregion_shock_ssp5
• MSA_shock_ssp1
• MSA_shock_ssp5
• PM25_shock_ssp1
• PM25_shock_ssp5
• SOC_shock_ssp1
• SOC_shock_ssp5
• Water_stress_shock_ssp1
• Water_stress_shock_ssp5

Accounting (1)

• WWF Ecoregions