Cyclone

Cyclone

A tropical cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) brings sustained winds strong enough to tear off roofs and break structures. The wind damages the asset, and the site stops while it is repaired. Cyclone prices both Property damage (% of asset value) and Business interruption (% of annual revenue).

What the map shows

• Today: the STORM 10-minute sustained wind for the 100-year cyclone, present climate (sheet).
• Projected: STORM publishes a single climate-change set, the median over 2015-2050 under roughly SSP5-8.5, with no low-emissions branch. It is filed at 2035, the centre of its window, and carried unchanged to 2050 and 2080. Every scenario setting shows this same raster, and the caption says so.

How the loss is computed

The engine reads the STORM wind at each return period at the site's point. The 10-minute wind is converted to a 1-minute wind (factor 1.21 on land, 1.05 at sea), then passed through the Emanuel (2011) cubic excess-wind curve, with a vulnerability tier set by the site type. Business interruption is a loss-of-use relation on the same loss ratio. Both channels are integrated over return periods into an annual loss. Cyclone is tagged Built. See Damage functions: Cyclone and Climate risks.

Sources

• STORM v4 (VU Amsterdam IVM), 10 km resolution, IBTrACS-based. 4TU.ResearchData, Bloemendaal et al. (2023). CC0 1.0.
• STORM climate-change set: Bloemendaal et al. (2022), Science Advances, doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm8438. Licence not confirmed.
• Damage curve: Emanuel (2011) cubic excess-wind.

Limits

• The future wind is one published set near SSP5-8.5. The low and intermediate emissions settings read it too, so they are not more optimistic than the high one.
• The 2050 and 2080 figures carry the 2015-2050 climate forward as a floor; no later cyclone climate is published.
• The cyclone curve is fitted on reported total cyclone damage, which already contains rain and surge. Where extreme precipitation and coastal flood are also priced, the overlap is discounted when hazards are combined.