Annual mean temperature — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
This layer maps projected average annual air temperature for the late-century period 2071–2100 under a high-emissions future.
Source: CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.) Year: 2071-2100 Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Chronic Risks · 2071-2100 Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (~2 km) Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)
What it shows
This layer maps projected average annual air temperature for the late-century period 2071–2100 under a high-emissions future. It shows where the climate is expected to be warmer, and by how much, relative to the historical baseline. As a forward-looking view of chronic warming, it helps anticipate where temperature stress on ecosystems, agriculture and operations may intensify.
How it is built
The source is the CHELSA high-resolution climatology (version 2.1), one of its standard bioclimatic measures, here in its future-projection form. It describes mean annual temperature averaged over 2071–2100 under the SSP3-7.0 high-emissions scenario, downscaled from a single climate model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) at roughly a 2 km grid. As a projection from one model under one scenario, it should be read as an indicative future, not a precise forecast.
How to read it
Values are projected temperatures: higher values mark warmer projected conditions. The layer is most informative when compared against the 1981–2010 baseline temperature layer to reveal the scale and pattern of expected warming at a site.
Class thresholds
The underlying quantity is a physical variable: projected mean annual air temperature, in degrees Celsius (°C), averaged over 2071–2100 under the SSP3-7.0 high-emissions scenario. This is a continuous-gradient layer with no discrete risk classes — pixel values are the projected temperature itself, rendered on a smooth colour ramp spanning roughly −20 °C to +30 °C (the display range; the underlying data is not clipped to it). There is no risk-flag threshold: the layer is contextual and is not used in materiality scoring.
How these thresholds were set. There are no class breaks to set — the colour ramp is a Darwin in-house display choice (a linear stretch over the −20 °C to +30 °C range, kept identical to the 1981–2010 baseline layer so the two can be compared directly), not a classification. The temperature values themselves come unchanged from the CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 SSP3-7.0 projection (MPI-ESM1-2-HR).
Source
CHELSA-CMIP6 version 2.1 (Karger et al.), open licence.
Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite
There is no equivalent indicator in the WWF Risk Filter Suite. This is a forward-looking climate-scenario variant; the WWF Suite publishes present-day indicators rather than late-century bioclimatic projections, so it has no distinct WWF counterpart and is a Darwin extension of the chronic-climate theme.
Legend
Symbolised field: Annual mean temperature
Generated from darwin/layers/layer-chelsa-tmean_annual-ssp370.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).