Climate Acute RisksRiverine Flood risk (Aqueduct 3.0)

Riverine Flood risk (Aqueduct 3.0)

This layer estimates the share of population expected to be affected by river flooding in an average year, after accounting for existing flood-protection standards.

Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Acute Risks Coverage: Global Format: Boundary polygons (sub-national units) Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer estimates the share of population expected to be affected by river flooding in an average year, after accounting for existing flood-protection standards. It captures the ongoing, expected burden of riverine flooding rather than a single worst-case event, making it a useful indicator of chronic flood exposure for sites and supply chains located near rivers and floodplains.

How it is built

The risk is assessed by combining three elements: hazard (inundation caused by rivers overflowing), exposure (the population located in flood zones) and vulnerability, with the prevailing level of flood protection also folded into the calculation. Crucially, the indicator represents average annual impact: the consequences of rare, extreme flood years are averaged together with more frequent, milder years to produce an "expected annual affected population". Values are reported per sub-national reporting unit and delivered as mapped polygons.

How to read it

Higher values mean a greater proportion of the local population is expected to be affected by river flooding in a typical year, indicating higher chronic flood risk. Lower values indicate limited expected impact. Because the figure is an annual average, it smooths out the difference between calm years and catastrophic ones; it is best read as a measure of persistent exposure rather than peak severity.

Source

WRI Aqueduct (Aqueduct 4.0 flood-risk methodology), World Resources Institute.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

This layer maps to WWF Biodiversity Risk Filter indicator S3_7 Flooding and the WWF Water Risk Filter B3 Flood category. WWF expresses flooding as a basin-level composite of occurrence and hazard. Darwin instead provides an exposure-weighted, sub-national riverine flood-risk surface (expected annual affected population), so the two share the same hazard theme but differ in how risk is aggregated and expressed.

Legend

Symbolised field: Riverine Flood risk category

ClassColour
No Data #d3d3d3
No Risk #74afd1
Low Risk (0 to 1 in 1,000) #aac7d8
Medium Risk (1 in 1,000 to 6 in 1,000) #dededd
High Risk (6 in 1,000 to 1 in 100) #f8ab95
Extremely High Risk (more than 1 in 100) #f27454

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-riverine-flood-risk-aqueduct-3-0.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).