Fire Weather Risk 2050 (France, DRIAS)
This is a forward-looking scenario layer for France.
Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Acute Risks Coverage: Country (France) Format: Raster grid Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)
What it shows
This is a forward-looking scenario layer for France. It measures how often weather conditions favourable to wildfire are projected to occur around the 2050 horizon, helping anticipate where the risk of fire ignition and spread will be greatest — with implications for forests and ecosystems, air quality and human settlements.
How it is built
The layer reports the projected number of days per year on which the Fire Weather Index (a standard meteorological measure of fire danger) exceeds 40, the threshold for high fire-weather conditions. It is based on the French DRIAS TRACC2023 climate projection for the ~2050 horizon, at a +2°C global warming level (roughly +2.7°C over France). As a single-model scenario projection, it should be read as a plausible future trajectory rather than an observation. Risk is concentrated on the Mediterranean coast and Corsica.
How to read it
Higher values mean more days per year with fire-favourable weather, indicating greater exposure to wildfire ignition and spread, forest and ecosystem damage, smoke-related air-quality loss and threats to settlements at the edge of wildland. Lower values indicate fewer such days.
Source
DRIAS – Les futurs du climat (TRACC2023 experiment) — https://www.drias-climat.fr.
Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite
WWF's wildfire indicator (S3_2) is a present-day, global measure based on satellite active-fire observations. This layer is instead a France-specific, forward-looking 2050 fire-weather projection, so it has no distinct WWF equivalent and acts as a national scenario complement.
Legend
Symbolised field: Days with IFM > 40 (days/year)
Generated from darwin/layers/layer-fire-weather-risk-2050-france-drias.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).