Pollination shock
Horizon-resolved projection of the change in native-bee pollination supply, from the InVEST pollination model. This layer family backs the Pollination ecosystem service of the Nature Stress Test.
Source: InVEST native-bee pollination model (Chaplin-Kramer et al.) Year: 2015 baseline → 2035 / 2050 / 2080 Category: Scenario · Ecosystem service (ES-direct, Tier-2) Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (COG) Used in risk analysis: Yes — supplies the Pollination service shock in the Nature Stress Test; not used in present-day materiality scoring.
What it shows
This layer family projects how the supply of wild (native-bee) pollination at a site is expected to change under climate-and-land-use scenarios, relative to a 2015 baseline. It is the forward-looking counterpart of the present-day Pollination Deficit (Chaplin-Kramer) layer: the deficit layer says where pollination supply falls short of demand today, this one says how supply is projected to move.
It is an ES-direct (Tier-2) layer: it carries an ecosystem service shock, not an ecosystem component shock. When it resolves for the requested scenario and horizon, the Nature Stress Test reads the Pollination degradation straight from the layer and bypasses the ENCORE projection from natural assets.
How it is built
The InVEST native-bee model derives pollinator abundance from the floral resources and nesting substrate available in the landscape around each cell, and compares supply against the pollination demand of the crops grown there. The layer scores the resulting pollination deficit — the shortfall — aggregated from the source rasters (10 arc-second) onto the 0.5° stress-test grid with nodata-aware averaging. The shock is the relative change in that deficit (%) versus the 2015 baseline.
Sign convention: positive = worse. The layer scores the shortfall, not the supply, so the value rises as the service degrades. This is a pressure/state layer, like PM2.5, water stress and the NDR water-purification layer — the opposite of the service/abundance layers (LUH2, MSA, GLOBIO-ES), whose values fall as the service degrades. The stress-test engine normalises both families before computing loss.
| Layer | Scenario | Horizon | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
Pollination_shock_ssp1_2035 | SSP1 (optimistic) | 2035 | Scaled from the 2050 slice |
Pollination_shock_ssp1_2050 | SSP1 (optimistic) | 2050 | Real model slice |
Pollination_shock_ssp1_2080 | SSP1 (optimistic) | 2080 | Scaled from the 2050 slice |
Pollination_shock_ssp3_2035 | SSP3 (pessimistic) | 2035 | Scaled from the 2050 slice |
Pollination_shock_ssp3_2050 | SSP3 (pessimistic) | 2050 | Real model slice |
Pollination_shock_ssp3_2080 | SSP3 (pessimistic) | 2080 | Scaled from the 2050 slice |
Horizon provenance — read this before using 2035 or 2080. The pollination model publishes a single future slice, at 2050. The 2035 and 2080 layers are linearly scaled off the 2015 baseline — the 2050 shock multiplied by (horizon − 2015) / 35 and clamped to range — so they assume the service degrades at a constant rate. They carry no independent model information: they are an interpolation and an extrapolation of the 2050 result, and should be read as a trajectory, not as a projection.
Scenario forcing. The pessimistic member is driven by SSP3-RCP6.0, the forcing this model publishes for the regional-rivalry pathway, whereas the natural-asset layers use SSP3-RCP7.0 and the application labels the scenario SSP3-7.0 throughout. Same storyline, slightly lower radiative forcing behind this service model.
How to read it
Values are the projected change in the pollination deficit, in percent versus 2015. More positive = greater projected loss of pollination service at that location; negative values mean the deficit narrows. The signal is only material where pollination-dependent production actually sits — a site with no insect-pollinated crop in its supply chain can show a large shock and still carry no financial exposure to it.
Class thresholds
The underlying quantity is a change-of-condition flux: relative change in the pollination deficit, in % vs the 2015 baseline, capped at ±100 %. Rendered as a continuous symlog diverging gradient over the endpoints −100 / 0 / +100, not as discrete risk classes. The ±100 endpoints are an in-house symmetric display choice, not published thresholds.
Map rendering is being corrected. The colour ramp and the "high Pollination shock zone" proximity flag were configured for the service/abundance convention (red at −100, flag below −30 %), which is inverted relative to the deficit data described above. The stress-test results are unaffected — the engine normalises the sign (darwin#6873) — but until the layer definition is updated, the map colours and the zone flag for this layer read backwards. This section will be updated with the corrected ramp.
Source
InVEST native-bee pollination supply (Natural Capital Project), after Chaplin-Kramer et al. — global, native 10″ resolution.
Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite
This is a forward-looking, horizon-resolved scenario layer and has no equivalent in the WWF Risk Filter Suite, which publishes present-day indicators only. Treat it as a Darwin extension.
Legend
Symbolised field: Pollination shock (%)
Generated from darwin/layers/layer-pollination-shock-ssp{1,3}-{2035,2050,2080}.toml (develop).