Pollination shock

Source: Darwin computation — MSA (GLOBIO 4), surface wind (Copernicus C3S Atlas, CMIP6), water stress (WRI Aqueduct 4.0), pollination deficit (Chaplin-Kramer et al. 2019), ENCORE Year: 2035 / 2050 / 2080 Category: Scenario · Ecosystem service (ES-direct, Tier-2) Coverage: Global (land) Format: Raster grid (COG, ~1 km) Used in risk analysis: Yes — supplies the Pollination service shock in the Resilience — nature risks; not used in present-day materiality scoring.

What it shows

This layer family projects how much the pollination service degrades at a location under two scenarios and three horizons. It is the forward-looking counterpart of the present-day Pollination Deficit (Chaplin-Kramer) layer: the deficit layer says where pollination supply falls short of crop demand today, and it is also where this layer is allowed to carry a signal.

It is an ES-direct (Tier-2) layer: it carries an ecosystem service shock, not an ecosystem component shock. When it resolves for the requested scenario and horizon, Resilience reads the Pollination degradation straight from the layer and bypasses the ENCORE projection from natural assets — the component projection has already been done, cell by cell, inside the layer.

How it is built

Three component shocks are combined per cell, each weighted by how critical ENCORE rates that component for pollination in the cell's biome (Species and Atmosphere rated Red, Water Amber):

S = min( 100 % ;  1.0 × MSA decline  +  1.0 × |Δ wind|  +  0.3 × water-stress rise )

• Species — MSA decline. The fall in Mean Species Abundance (GLOBIO 4) against its baseline; an improvement adds nothing.
• Atmosphere — change in surface wind. ENCORE's justification for this link is that "changes in wind will affect dispersal", in either direction, so the shock is the absolute change in mean surface wind speed (Copernicus C3S Atlas, median of 24 CMIP6 members), expressed as a percentage of the global median wind (6.258 m/s) rather than of the local baseline — a local denominator would inflate the same physical change wherever wind is weak.
• Water — linear rise in water stress. (future stress − 2014 stress) / (2014 stress + 1) on the Aqueduct baseline-water-stress score. It deliberately skips the hard step at the "High" stress category that the generic Water component applies, and its weight is lowered from ENCORE's Amber 0.6 to 0.3, because basin water stress is only an indirect proxy for pollinators.

The three contributions are added and capped at 100 % — the components are treated as independent, with no overlap discount between them.

Masked to where pollination matters. The degradation is kept only where the present-day Chaplin-Kramer pollination deficit is above zero, i.e. over pollinator-dependent cropland. Everywhere else on land the layer is 0: a site with no insect-pollinated production around it has no pollination service to lose.

Resolution. The layer is written on a ~1 km grid, but the information behind it is coarser: MSA at ~300 m, wind at 1°, water stress per basin.

Sign convention: positive = worse. The value rises as the service degrades and never goes below zero. This is a pressure layer, like PM2.5, water stress and the NDR water-purification layer — the opposite of the service/abundance layers (LUH2, MSA, GLOBIO-ES), whose values fall as the service degrades.

A companion reading layer, Pollination Shock — largest contributor — SSP3 2050, shows cell by cell which of the three terms contributes most (Species, Wind or Water) under the same mask. It feeds no calculation.

How to read it

Values are the projected degradation of the pollination service, in percent. 0 means no degradation — either nothing moved, or the cell has no pollinator-dependent crop. Higher values mean a larger combined loss of pollinator abundance and of the conditions pollination depends on. A large value still carries no financial exposure for a site whose activity does not depend on pollination: the site's dependency decides that.

Class thresholds

Rendered as a continuous linear gradient from white at 0 %, through orange at 20 %, to dark red at 40 % and above — not as discrete risk classes. These stops are an in-house display choice, not published thresholds.

The layer's zone rule marks a cell as a high pollination shock zone when the projected degradation exceeds 30 %. The Pollination materiality flag on the Sites & territories screen reads the present-day Pollination Deficit (Chaplin-Kramer) layer, so this rule does not drive it.

Source

Darwin computation combining GLOBIO 4 Mean Species Abundance, the Copernicus Climate Data Store Multi-origin C3S Atlas (CMIP6 surface wind), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 baseline water stress and the ENCORE delivery ratings, masked by the Chaplin-Kramer et al. (2019) pollination deficit (Science, Global Modeling of Nature's Contributions to People).

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

This is a forward-looking, horizon-resolved scenario layer and has no equivalent in the WWF Risk Filter Suite, which publishes present-day indicators only. Treat it as a Darwin extension.

Legend

Symbolised field: Pollination shock (%)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-pollination-shock-ssp{1,3}-{2035,2050,2080}.toml (develop).