Min temperature of coldest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)
This layer projects the minimum temperature of the coldest month for the end of the century (2071–2100) under a high-emissions pathway (SSP3-7.0).
Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Chronic Risks · 2071-2100 Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (~2 km) Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)
What it shows
This layer projects the minimum temperature of the coldest month for the end of the century (2071–2100) under a high-emissions pathway (SSP3-7.0). It indicates how winter cold extremes are expected to shift in a future of limited climate action, signalling where milder winters could alter species ranges, pest survival, growing seasons and frost-dependent ecosystem processes.
How it is built
The layer comes from the CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 bioclimatic dataset (Karger et al.), which downscales global climate model output to a fine grid with terrain and atmospheric corrections. This surface is a future projection for 2071–2100 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, drawn from a single climate model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR). Relying on one model, it captures the projected direction and broad magnitude of change but not the full range of model uncertainty. It is provided globally at roughly 2 km grid spacing.
How to read it
Higher (less negative) values indicate milder projected winters under this scenario; lower values indicate colder seasonal minima. The layer is most informative when compared against the matching 1981–2010 baseline: the difference between the two reveals how much winter cold extremes are projected to change. As a single-model projection, it is best read as indicative of relative change rather than a precise local forecast.
Source
CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 bioclimatic layer (Karger et al.), minimum temperature of the coldest month, SSP3-7.0 projection for 2071–2100 (MPI-ESM1-2-HR). Open licence.
Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite
This is a forward-looking bioclimatic scenario variant with no separate equivalent in the WWF Risk Filter Suite. WWF publishes present-day indicators; end-of-century climate projections such as this are temporal variants that WWF does not itself produce. It should be treated as a Darwin climate-context extension rather than a mapping onto a specific WWF indicator.
Legend
Symbolised field: Min temperature of coldest month
Generated from darwin/layers/layer-chelsa-tasmin_coldestmonth-ssp370.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).