Precipitation of driest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)

Source: CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.) Year: 2071-2100 Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Chronic Risks · 2071-2100 Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (~2 km) Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer projects how much rainfall the driest month of a typical year will see late this century, under a high-emissions future. It is a forward-looking bioclimatic indicator describing the depth of the seasonal dry period, which governs water availability, vegetation stress and the long-term suitability of land for crops and ecosystems.

How it is built

The layer comes from CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.) under the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the 2071-2100 period, based on a single climate model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR). The variable is the projected precipitation total of the driest calendar month at end of century. It is delivered on a fine global grid of roughly 2 km. Being a future projection drawn from one model, it should be read as a plausible long-term outlook rather than a precise forecast.

How to read it

Higher values indicate a wetter driest month — a milder future dry season; lower values indicate a more severe future seasonal drought. The layer is most informative when compared against the 1981-2010 baseline variant to reveal the direction and size of projected change.

Class thresholds

The underlying layer models a physical flux: precipitation of the driest month, in millimetres (mm) — the projected rainfall total of the driest calendar month of a typical year under SSP3-7.0 (2071-2100). It is rendered as a continuous colour ramp over the range 0 to 200 mm rather than as discrete risk classes, so there is no break table and the layer carries no proximity trigger (it is contextual and does not raise a risk flag on its own).

How these thresholds were set. There are no risk-class breaks: the quantity is a raw CHELSA bioclimatic variable shown on a continuous scale. The 0–200 mm display range is a Darwin in-house rendering choice, not a published CHELSA classification.

Reference: CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.) — chelsa-climate.org.

Source

CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.), SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 projection (MPI-ESM1-2-HR); open licence.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

The WWF Risk Filter Suite publishes present-day indicators and no standalone bioclimatic precipitation projections. This is a forward-looking climate-scenario variant with no distinct WWF equivalent, and is a Darwin extension.

Legend

Symbolised field: Precipitation of driest month

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-chelsa-precip_driestmonth-ssp370.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).