Extreme Heat Risk (IPCC CMIP6)
This layer measures exposure to extreme heat under a forward-looking climate scenario.
Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Acute Risks Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (~25 km) Used in risk analysis: Yes — gates Mitigating services
What it shows
This layer measures exposure to extreme heat under a forward-looking climate scenario. It indicates how often very hot days are expected to occur, which matters for human health and productivity, agriculture and livestock, cooling-energy demand and the stability of infrastructure at and around a site.
How it is built
The layer draws on IPCC climate projections from the CMIP6 model ensemble. It reports the projected annual number of days with a maximum temperature above 35 degrees Celsius under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which corresponds to roughly +2 degrees of global warming — the Paris Agreement target. To reduce the influence of any single model, the value at each location is the median across 27 climate models.
How to read it
Higher values mean more extreme-heat days per year are projected, indicating greater exposure to heat-related risks. Lower values indicate fewer such days. The measure is a count of hot days, so differences between locations can be read directly as differences in heat exposure.
Source
IPCC Interactive Atlas — CMIP6 model ensemble (SSP2-4.5, +2°C warming level). https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/.
Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite
This maps to WWF Biodiversity Risk Filter indicator S3_5 Extreme Heat. WWF builds its extreme-heat indicator from a GFDRR wet-bulb-globe-temperature dataset, whereas Darwin uses IPCC CMIP6 climate projections. The hazard is the same, but the underlying source differs.
Risk analysis
A site is flagged on a dimension by combining a proximity trigger (this layer) with an activity trigger (the entity's ENCORE pressure/service). Proximity only → Potentially material; proximity and the matching ENCORE pressure/service is material → Very material; neither → Not material.
| Dimension | ENCORE service / pressure | Proximity trigger (this layer) | Activity trigger (entity) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitigating services | Local (micro and meso) climate regulation | Layer value above 30 | “Local (micro and meso) climate regulation” pressure ≥ 4 |
Legend
Symbolised field: Days with TX > 35°C
Generated from darwin/layers/layer-extreme-heat-risk-ipcc-cmip6.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).