Ecoregion Shock SSP5

Category: Scenario Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This is a forward-looking scenario layer. It estimates how the condition of each ecoregion could change under a high-emissions, fossil-fuel-intensive future, helping anticipate where ecosystems may degrade most under an adverse trajectory. It is intended as a strategic, scenario-based view of nature-related risk rather than a description of present conditions.

How it is built

The layer represents the projected relative change in ecoregion condition, expressed as a percentage, under the SSP5-8.5 pathway — the "fossil-fuelled development" socio-economic scenario, characterised by high emissions and intensive resource use. Values are modelled as a change relative to a present-day baseline. As a scenario projection, the figures should be read as a plausible trajectory under a specific set of assumptions, not as observed change.

How to read it

Values range from approximately -71% (severe projected degradation of ecoregion condition) up to 0% (no projected change). More negative values flag ecoregions expected to deteriorate most under this high-emissions scenario; values near zero indicate ecoregions expected to remain stable.

Source

Darwin forward-looking scenario layer (SSP5-8.5), projected relative change in ecoregion condition. Detailed source attribution pending.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

The WWF Risk Filter Suite publishes present-day indicators only. This is a forward-looking scenario variant of ecosystem-condition risk, so it has no distinct equivalent in the WWF methodology. It complements WWF's static view with a high-emissions scenario trajectory.

Legend

Symbolised field: Ecoregion shock (%)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-ecoregion-shock-ssp5.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).