Tourism intensity: estimated annual visitors number in 2019 (Adamiak et al.)

Source: Adamiak et al. Year: 2019 Category: Physical risks · Cultural services Coverage: Global Format: Boundary polygons (hexagonal grid) Used in risk analysis: Yes — gates Cultural services

What it shows

This layer maps the global distribution of tourism intensity, estimating how many tourists visit each area. It highlights major tourism hotspots worldwide. It matters for nature-related risk because concentrated visitor pressure can affect natural and cultural resources, while tourism-dependent areas are themselves sensitive to changes in the surrounding environment.

How it is built

The layer is based on Adamiak et al. (2019), which estimated domestic and international tourist visits for the year 2019 and distributed them across a global hexagonal grid. The measured variable is the estimated annual number of tourist visits per cell. Values reflect the relative concentration of tourism activity, allowing hotspots to stand out clearly against quieter areas.

How to read it

Higher values indicate areas with greater tourism intensity and therefore more concentrated visitor pressure on local natural and cultural resources. Lower values indicate areas with little tourism activity. Each hexagonal cell carries an estimated visitor count, so the layer reads as a continuous intensity surface rather than discrete sites.

Class thresholds

The underlying quantity is a physical-intensity measure: the estimated number of tourist visits per cell in 2019 (annual visitors) — domestic and international visits distributed across a global hexagonal grid by Adamiak et al. (2019). On the map the value is rendered on a logarithmic colour ramp running from 1,000 visitors (white) to 75,000,000 visitors (red); the underlying data spans roughly 1,074 to 74.6 million visits per cell. For risk scoring the continuous count is binned into five classes:

A site is flagged on the Cultural services dimension when the layer value exceeds 1,000,000 annual visitors (the Low/Moderate boundary); the flag becomes Very material only when this proximity trigger coincides with a material "Recreation related services" ENCORE pressure (≥ 4) for the entity.

How these thresholds were set. This is a Darwin in-house classification: round-number, order-of-magnitude cutoffs (100,000 / 1,000,000 / 10,000,000 / 50,000,000 visitors) applied to the Adamiak et al. visitor estimates and held in Darwin's country-risk-profile configuration. They are not derived from Adamiak et al. or any external standard; the source dataset provides the visitor counts, and Darwin sets the class breaks.

Source

Adamiak et al. (2019) — global tourism intensity, estimated annual visitors for 2019.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

This relates to WWF Biodiversity Risk Filter indicator S4_1 Natural & Cultural Resources, on the terrestrial side. WWF builds that indicator from a recreation surface (Hooftman, 2023) combined with marine ocean-health data; Darwin covers terrestrial tourism intensity from Adamiak et al. As a result, marine recreation and sense-of-place are not captured by this layer, while the terrestrial tourism signal is directly relevant.

Risk analysis

A site is flagged on a dimension by combining a proximity trigger (this layer) with an activity trigger (the entity's ENCORE pressure/service). Proximity only → Potentially material; proximity and the matching ENCORE pressure/service is material → Very material; neither → Not material.

Legend

Symbolised field: Annual visitors

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-tourism-intensity-estimated-annual-visitors-number-in-2019-adamiak-et-al.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).