Ecoregion Shock SSP1

Category: Scenario Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This is a forward-looking scenario layer. It estimates how the condition of each ecoregion could change under a sustainable-development future, helping anticipate where ecosystems may degrade over time rather than describing present-day conditions. It is intended as a strategic, scenario-based view of nature-related risk.

How it is built

The layer represents the projected relative change in ecoregion condition, expressed as a percentage, under the SSP1-2.6 pathway — the "sustainable development" socio-economic scenario, characterised by lower emissions and stronger environmental stewardship. Values are modelled as a change relative to a present-day baseline. Because it is a scenario projection, the figures should be read as plausible trajectories under a specific set of assumptions rather than as observations.

How to read it

Values range from roughly -71% (severe projected degradation of ecoregion condition) up to 0% (no projected change). More negative values flag ecoregions expected to deteriorate most under this scenario; values near zero indicate ecoregions expected to remain stable.

Source

Darwin forward-looking scenario layer (SSP1-2.6), projected relative change in ecoregion condition. Detailed source attribution pending.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

The WWF Risk Filter Suite publishes present-day indicators only. This is a forward-looking scenario variant of ecosystem-condition risk, so it has no distinct equivalent in the WWF methodology. It complements WWF's static view with a scenario-based trajectory.

Legend

Symbolised field: Ecoregion shock (%)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-ecoregion-shock-ssp1.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).