MSA Shock SSP5

Category: Scenario Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer projects how much biodiversity could change under a fossil-fuel-intensive future (the SSP5-8.5 pathway). It expresses the expected shift in the local abundance of native species relative to a present-day baseline, helping users anticipate where biodiversity pressure could intensify if the world follows a high-emissions, resource-intensive trajectory.

How it is built

The layer is based on the Mean Species Abundance concept, which compares the average abundance of native species in a location against an intact reference state. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario — a pathway of rapid, fossil-fuelled economic growth with high warming — the projected relative change in biodiversity is calculated and mapped as a percentage shift from baseline. Values represent a modelled future outcome rather than an observed present-day condition, and should be read as indicative of direction and relative magnitude rather than as a precise local forecast.

How to read it

Values represent the projected relative change in species abundance (%) compared with the baseline. More negative values indicate a larger projected loss of biodiversity at that location under this high-emissions scenario; values near zero indicate little projected change. Comparing this layer against the SSP1 shock layer highlights the biodiversity difference between a sustainable and a fossil-fuel-intensive future.

Source

Mean Species Abundance shock under the SSP5-8.5 fossil-fuelled-development scenario. Full source attribution pending.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

This is a forward-looking scenario variant and has no separate equivalent in the WWF Risk Filter Suite. WWF publishes present-day indicators; scenario shock layers such as this are temporal projections of biodiversity-condition risks that WWF does not itself produce. It should be treated as a Darwin extension that complements, rather than maps onto, a specific WWF indicator.

Legend

Symbolised field: MSA shock (%)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-msa-shock-ssp5.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).