Precipitation seasonality (CV) — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)

Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Chronic Risks · 2071-2100 Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (~2 km) Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer projects how unevenly rainfall will be spread across the year late this century, under a high-emissions future. It captures the variability between months — whether future precipitation is steady year-round or concentrated in a short wet season. Shifts in seasonality affect drought stress, water-storage needs and the long-term suitability of land for ecosystems and agriculture.

How it is built

The layer comes from CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.) under the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the 2071-2100 period, based on a single climate model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR). The variable is the coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation — a standard measure of month-to-month rainfall fluctuation relative to the average — projected to end of century. It is delivered on a fine global grid of roughly 2 km and, as a single-model projection, is best read as a plausible long-term outlook.

How to read it

Higher values indicate stronger projected seasonality, with rainfall concentrated into part of the year; lower values indicate more evenly distributed rainfall. The layer is most informative when compared against the 1981-2010 baseline variant to reveal how seasonal concentration is expected to change.

Source

CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.), SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 projection (MPI-ESM1-2-HR); open licence.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

The WWF Risk Filter Suite publishes present-day indicators and no standalone bioclimatic seasonality projections. This is a forward-looking climate-scenario variant with no distinct WWF equivalent, and is a Darwin extension.

Legend

Symbolised field: Precipitation seasonality (CV)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-chelsa-precip_seasonality-ssp370.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).