Water stress shock (SSP5)

Category: Scenario Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer shows how much water stress is projected to change under a high-emissions, fossil-fuelled development future (the SSP5-8.5 pathway). Rather than showing the level of water stress, it shows the shock — the relative shift away from today's conditions — to highlight where water availability could deteriorate (or improve) most sharply under this more extreme scenario.

How it is built

Values represent the projected relative change in water stress, expressed as a percentage difference from the present-day baseline, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The result is presented as a grid covering the globe. Because it is a scenario shock, the layer is best read alongside the present-day water-stress layer, which provides the starting conditions the shock is applied to.

How to read it

Values capture the direction and size of change relative to baseline: larger positive values indicate areas where water stress is projected to worsen most under this high-emissions pathway, while values pointing the other way indicate easing pressure. As a scenario projection it indicates relative change, not an exact future level.

Source

Forward-looking water-stress shock under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. (Derived scenario layer; underlying provenance not separately attributed.)

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

The WWF Risk Filter Suite publishes present-day indicators only. This forward-looking scenario shock has no distinct WWF equivalent; it is a scenario variant of the water-stress risk WWF covers for the present day, expressing change rather than absolute level.

Legend

Symbolised field: Water availability shock (%)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-water-stress-shock-ssp5.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).