Max temperature of warmest month — SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 (CHELSA)

Source: CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 (Karger et al.) Year: 2071-2100 Category: Physical risks · Mitigating services · Climate Chronic Risks · 2071-2100 Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid (~2 km) Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer projects the maximum temperature of the warmest month for the end of the century (2071–2100) under a high-emissions pathway (SSP3-7.0). It indicates where peak seasonal heat is expected to be most extreme in a future shaped by regional rivalry and limited climate action, signalling locations where habitats, agriculture and water resources may face intensifying chronic heat stress.

How it is built

The layer comes from the CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 bioclimatic dataset (Karger et al.), which downscales global climate model output to a fine grid with terrain and atmospheric corrections. This surface is a future projection for 2071–2100 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, drawn from a single climate model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR). Because it relies on one model, it captures the projected direction and broad magnitude of change but not the full spread of model uncertainty. It is provided globally at roughly 2 km grid spacing.

How to read it

Higher values indicate hotter projected peak-month temperatures under this scenario. The layer is most informative when compared against the matching 1981–2010 baseline: the difference between the two reveals the magnitude of projected warming at each location. As a single-model projection, it is best read as indicative of relative change rather than a precise local forecast.

Class thresholds

The underlying quantity is a physical variable: projected maximum air temperature of the warmest month, in degrees Celsius (°C), for 2071–2100 under the SSP3-7.0 high-emissions scenario. This is a continuous-gradient layer with no discrete risk classes — pixel values are the projected temperature itself, rendered on a smooth colour ramp spanning roughly −10 °C to +45 °C (the display range; the underlying data is not clipped to it). There is no risk-flag threshold: the layer is contextual and is not used in materiality scoring.

How these thresholds were set. There are no class breaks to set — the colour ramp is a Darwin in-house display choice (a linear stretch over the −10 °C to +45 °C range, kept identical to the 1981–2010 baseline layer so the two can be compared directly), not a classification. The temperature values themselves come unchanged from the CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 SSP3-7.0 projection (MPI-ESM1-2-HR).

Source

CHELSA-CMIP6 v2.1 bioclimatic layer (Karger et al.), maximum temperature of the warmest month, SSP3-7.0 projection for 2071–2100 (MPI-ESM1-2-HR). Open licence.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

This is a forward-looking bioclimatic scenario variant with no separate equivalent in the WWF Risk Filter Suite. WWF publishes present-day indicators; end-of-century climate projections such as this are temporal variants that WWF does not itself produce. It should be treated as a Darwin climate-context extension rather than a mapping onto a specific WWF indicator.

Legend

Symbolised field: Max temperature of warmest month

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-chelsa-tasmax_warmestmonth-ssp370.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).