MSA Shock SSP1

Category: Scenario Coverage: Global Format: Raster grid Used in risk analysis: No (contextual layer; not used in materiality scoring)

What it shows

This layer projects how much biodiversity could change under a sustainable-development future (the SSP1-2.6 pathway). It expresses the expected shift in the local abundance of native species relative to a present-day baseline, helping users anticipate where biodiversity pressure may ease or intensify if the world follows a low-emissions, conservation-oriented trajectory.

How it is built

The layer is based on the Mean Species Abundance concept, which compares the average abundance of native species in a location against an intact reference state. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario — a pathway combining strong sustainability efforts with limited warming — the projected relative change in biodiversity is calculated and mapped as a percentage shift from baseline. Values therefore represent a modelled future outcome rather than an observed present-day condition. As a scenario projection, the layer should be read as indicative of direction and relative magnitude rather than as a precise local forecast.

How to read it

Values represent the projected relative change in species abundance (%) compared with the baseline. More negative values indicate a larger projected loss of biodiversity at that location under this scenario; values near zero indicate little projected change; positive values indicate projected recovery. The layer is best used to compare relative outcomes between locations and against the contrasting SSP5 shock layer.

Source

Mean Species Abundance shock under the SSP1-2.6 sustainable-development scenario. Full source attribution pending.

Comparison with the WWF Risk Filter Suite

This is a forward-looking scenario variant and has no separate equivalent in the WWF Risk Filter Suite. WWF publishes present-day indicators; scenario shock layers such as this are temporal projections of biodiversity-condition risks that WWF does not itself produce. It should be treated as a Darwin extension that complements, rather than maps onto, a specific WWF indicator.

Legend

Symbolised field: MSA shock (%)

Generated from darwin/layers/layer-msa-shock-ssp1.toml and risk_indicator_pairs.toml (develop).